Narrative Geo · Research

Trade-area research. Live numbers.

Saturation, overlap, and cannibalization analysis on U.S. retail and restaurant chains. Every value in every post sourced from the platform's live API; the fetch timestamp is on each post's footer. No fabricated MSAs, no fabricated within-brand claims.

What Walmart's Trade Areas Say About Where the Traffic Is Contested
Weekly brief · August 24, 2026

What Walmart's Trade Areas Say About Where the Traffic Is Contested

Walmart shares fell about 9% on Thursday, August 20. Reporting put it as the worst single-day drop in more than four years, with more than $80 billion of market value gone. The trigger was not the top line. Revenue was reported up 5.9% to $187.9 billion, adjusted EPS at $0.81, and the company…

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Walmart printed today. Here is what the map said first.
Weekly brief · August 24, 2026

Walmart printed today. Here is what the map said first.

Walmart was chosen for this week's work off the news, not off the calendar. Shares fell about 9% on Thursday, August 20, their worst single-day drop in more than four years, erasing over $80 billion in market value, per CNBC. Reporting put US comparable sales up 2.6% ex-fuel, short of consensus and…

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The Wendy's Map, Held Against the Call
Weekly brief · August 17, 2026

The Wendy's Map, Held Against the Call

Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management is reportedly assembling an investor group to take Wendy's private, with a bid expected in the coming weeks. Flynn Group, a longtime franchisee, and BlueFive Capital may join. The stock jumped as much as 15 percent on August 12 on the report and was halted for…

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The map behind the Wendy's bid
Weekly brief · August 17, 2026

The map behind the Wendy's bid

Nelson Peltz's Trian is reported to be assembling an investor group to take Wendy's private, with a bid expected in the coming weeks. Flynn Group, a longtime Wendy's franchisee, and BlueFive Capital have been named as possible members of the consortium. The stock jumped as much as 15% on the report…

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Shake Shack's Whitespace, Measured Rather Than Asserted
Weekly brief · August 10, 2026

Shake Shack's Whitespace, Measured Rather Than Asserted

Starboard Value disclosed a new stake in Shake Shack on August 5, 2026, reported to be worth several hundred million dollars and likely the largest active position in the stock. The shares gained about 8.6% to $71.90 on the news. The reported thesis is that Shake Shack should layer US franchising…

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McDonald's
QSR · MCD · May 13, 2026 · 5 min read

McDonald's U.S. saturation read: live trade-area numbers

McDonald's operates 13,558 U.S. stores reaching 320M Americans (95.6%) at a 30-min drive. Trade-area overlap with Burger King (6,635 stores): 95.8%. All numbers below pulled from the live platform API at 2026-05-14 17:05:28 UTC.

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Chipotle
QSR · CMG vs CAVA · May 13, 2026 · 5 min read

Chipotle vs. CAVA: where the trade areas actually overlap

Chipotle operates 3,929 U.S. stores reaching 270M Americans (80.5%) at a 30-min drive. Trade-area overlap with CAVA (472 stores): 55.0%. All numbers below pulled from the live platform API at 2026-05-14 17:05:35 UTC.

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Costco
Warehouse club · COST vs BJ · May 13, 2026 · 5 min read

Costco vs. BJ's: the U.S. warehouse-club duopoly map

Costco operates 620 U.S. stores reaching 214M Americans (64.0%) at a 30-min drive. Trade-area overlap with BJ's Wholesale Club (283 stores): 36.0%. All numbers below pulled from the live platform API at 2026-05-14 17:05:40 UTC.

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Walmart
Mass retail · WMT vs TGT · May 13, 2026 · 5 min read

Walmart vs. Target: trade-area overlap on the live platform

Walmart operates 4,610 U.S. stores reaching 308M Americans (92.0%) at a 30-min drive. Trade-area overlap with Target (1,978 stores): 84.7%. All numbers below pulled from the live platform API at 2026-05-14 17:05:55 UTC.

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Sprouts Farmers Market
Grocery · SFM vs TJ · May 13, 2026 · 5 min read

Sprouts vs. Trader Joe's: 50.6% trade-area overlap, real numbers

Sprouts Farmers Market operates 443 U.S. stores reaching 119M Americans (35.4%) at a 30-min drive. Trade-area overlap with Trader Joe's (643 stores): 50.6%. All numbers below pulled from the live platform API at 2026-05-14 17:06:00 UTC.

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Research

AutoZone vs Advance Auto Parts: trade area overlap

AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts trade areas routed on the road network. 74.84% of AutoZone's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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AutoZone vs O'Reilly Auto Parts: trade area overlap

AutoZone and O'Reilly Auto Parts trade areas routed on the road network. 85.64% of AutoZone's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Baskin-Robbins vs Dairy Queen: trade area overlap

Baskin-Robbins and Dairy Queen trade areas routed on the road network. 95.25% of Baskin-Robbins's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Best Buy vs GameStop: trade area overlap

Best Buy and GameStop trade areas routed on the road network. 96.06% of Best Buy's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Boot Barn vs Tractor Supply: trade area overlap

Boot Barn and Tractor Supply trade areas routed on the road network. 80.31% of Boot Barn's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Research

Buxton Alternatives in 2026: What Changed and Where to Go

Buxton merged into Audiense in July 2026 and its location tools now sell as Audiense In-Person. A comparison of the remaining trade-area options and their prices.

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Casey's vs QuikTrip: trade area overlap

Casey's and QuikTrip trade areas routed on the road network. 42.66% of Casey's's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Chick-fil-A vs Popeyes: trade area overlap

Chick-fil-A and Popeyes trade areas routed on the road network. 94.43% of Chick-fil-A's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Chipotle vs Taco Bell: trade area overlap

Chipotle and Taco Bell trade areas routed on the road network. 99.78% of Chipotle's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Costco vs BJ's Wholesale Club: trade area overlap

Costco and BJ's Wholesale Club trade areas routed on the road network. 39.17% of Costco's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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CVS vs Good Neighbor Pharmacy: trade area overlap

CVS and Good Neighbor Pharmacy trade areas routed on the road network. 75.75% of CVS's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Dick's Sporting Goods vs Academy Sports + Outdoors: trade area overlap

Dick's Sporting Goods and Academy Sports + Outdoors trade areas routed on the road network. 27.79% of Dick's Sporting Goods's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Research

Dollar General vs Dollar Tree: trade area overlap

Dollar General and Dollar Tree trade areas routed on the road network. 96.02% of Dollar General's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Dollar Tree vs Family Dollar: trade area overlap

Dollar Tree and Family Dollar trade areas routed on the road network. 84.87% of Dollar Tree's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Domino's vs Papa John's: trade area overlap

Domino's and Papa John's trade areas routed on the road network. 89.71% of Domino's's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Domino's vs Pizza Hut: trade area overlap

Domino's and Pizza Hut trade areas routed on the road network. 95.72% of Domino's's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Research

Drive-Time vs Radius Trade Areas: Why Rings Are Wrong

A three-mile ring assumes people travel in circles at constant speed. They do not. What changes when trade areas are routed on the road network.

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Dutch Bros vs Starbucks: trade area overlap

Dutch Bros and Starbucks trade areas routed on the road network. 99.84% of Dutch Bros's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Five Below vs Dollar Tree: trade area overlap

Five Below and Dollar Tree trade areas routed on the road network. 99.93% of Five Below's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Foot Locker vs Dick's Sporting Goods: trade area overlap

Foot Locker and Dick's Sporting Goods trade areas routed on the road network. 94.58% of Foot Locker's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Research

Foot Traffic Panels vs Routed Trade Areas

Panels sample phones and extrapolate. Routing computes catchments from the road network. When each is the right tool.

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Research

Franchise Territory Mapping Software Compared (2026)

Territory is a contract term, not a map layer. A comparison of franchise territory mapping tools, how they define boundaries, and what they cost.

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Gap vs American Eagle: trade area overlap

Gap and American Eagle trade areas routed on the road network. 91.91% of Gap's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Great Clips vs Supercuts: trade area overlap

Great Clips and Supercuts trade areas routed on the road network. 85.34% of Great Clips's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Hardee's vs Burger King: trade area overlap

Hardee's and Burger King trade areas routed on the road network. 97.3% of Hardee's's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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How to Define a Franchise Territory That Holds Up

Territory boundaries become contract terms. How to define one that survives a franchisee dispute, and why radius grants create encroachment claims.

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Jiffy Lube vs Mister Car Wash: trade area overlap

Jiffy Lube and Mister Car Wash trade areas routed on the road network. 29.35% of Jiffy Lube's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Kroger vs ALDI: trade area overlap

Kroger and ALDI trade areas routed on the road network. 93.17% of Kroger's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Little Caesars vs Pizza Hut: trade area overlap

Little Caesars and Pizza Hut trade areas routed on the road network. 98.96% of Little Caesars's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Lululemon vs Alo Yoga: trade area overlap

Lululemon and Alo Yoga trade areas routed on the road network. 52.47% of Lululemon's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Lululemon vs Vuori: trade area overlap

Lululemon and Vuori trade areas routed on the road network. 54.17% of Lululemon's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Marco's Pizza vs Domino's: trade area overlap

Marco's Pizza and Domino's trade areas routed on the road network. 96.47% of Marco's Pizza's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Mattress Firm vs Floor & Decor: trade area overlap

Mattress Firm and Floor & Decor trade areas routed on the road network. 66.83% of Mattress Firm's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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McDonald's vs Burger King: trade area overlap

McDonald's and Burger King trade areas routed on the road network. 96.04% of McDonald's's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet vs Burlington: trade area overlap

Ollie's Bargain Outlet and Burlington trade areas routed on the road network. 86.27% of Ollie's Bargain Outlet's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Panera Bread vs CAVA: trade area overlap

Panera Bread and CAVA trade areas routed on the road network. 59.31% of Panera Bread's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Petco vs Tractor Supply: trade area overlap

Petco and Tractor Supply trade areas routed on the road network. 73.46% of Petco's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Placer.ai Alternatives for Trade Area Analysis (2026)

Placer.ai is a foot-traffic panel. If you need routed trade areas, saturation ceilings or chain-vs-chain overlap, here are the alternatives and what they cost.

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Planet Fitness vs Anytime Fitness: trade area overlap

Planet Fitness and Anytime Fitness trade areas routed on the road network. 82.17% of Planet Fitness's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Popeyes vs KFC: trade area overlap

Popeyes and KFC trade areas routed on the road network. 95.18% of Popeyes's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Retail Cannibalization Analysis: How to Actually Measure It

Cannibalization is measurable: the share of a new store's catchment already served by your existing stores. How to compute it and what the numbers mean.

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Retail Whitespace Analysis: A Practical Guide

Whitespace is not empty space on a map. It is population your footprint cannot reach. How to compute and rank it.

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Shake Shack vs Chipotle: trade area overlap

Shake Shack and Chipotle trade areas routed on the road network. 98.93% of Shake Shack's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Research

Site Selection Data: Sources, Costs and Coverage (2026)

What the major site-selection data sources actually cost, which are free, and which layers matter for trade-area work.

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Research

SiteZeus Alternatives for Franchise Site Selection (2026)

SiteZeus relaunched as Atlas in May 2026. A comparison of franchise site selection and territory mapping alternatives, with published prices.

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Sonic Drive-In vs Dairy Queen: trade area overlap

Sonic Drive-In and Dairy Queen trade areas routed on the road network. 93.68% of Sonic Drive-In's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Sprouts Farmers Market vs Trader Joe's: trade area overlap

Sprouts Farmers Market and Trader Joe's trade areas routed on the road network. 88.33% of Sprouts Farmers Market's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Starbucks vs Dunkin': trade area overlap

Starbucks and Dunkin' trade areas routed on the road network. 85.35% of Starbucks's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Store Saturation: How Many Locations Can a Market Support?

Unit growth targets are usually stated without a ceiling. How saturation is computed from routed catchments, and what it says about published targets.

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Subway vs Jersey Mike's: trade area overlap

Subway and Jersey Mike's trade areas routed on the road network. 85.34% of Subway's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Subway vs Jimmy John's: trade area overlap

Subway and Jimmy John's trade areas routed on the road network. 73.39% of Subway's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Target vs Walmart: trade area overlap

Target and Walmart trade areas routed on the road network. 98.84% of Target's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Texas Roadhouse vs Cracker Barrel: trade area overlap

Texas Roadhouse and Cracker Barrel trade areas routed on the road network. 70.5% of Texas Roadhouse's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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The Home Depot vs Lowe's: trade area overlap

The Home Depot and Lowe's trade areas routed on the road network. 95.02% of The Home Depot's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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T.J. Maxx vs Burlington: trade area overlap

T.J. Maxx and Burlington trade areas routed on the road network. 86.38% of T.J. Maxx's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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T.J. Maxx vs Ross Dress for Less: trade area overlap

T.J. Maxx and Ross Dress for Less trade areas routed on the road network. 82.47% of T.J. Maxx's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Tractor Supply vs Ace Hardware: trade area overlap

Tractor Supply and Ace Hardware trade areas routed on the road network. 84.16% of Tractor Supply's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Trade Area Analysis Software: Complete Guide (2026)

The categories of trade-area software, what each is for, published prices, and how to tell a measured number from an extrapolated one.

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Ulta Beauty vs Sephora: trade area overlap

Ulta Beauty and Sephora trade areas routed on the road network. 95.56% of Ulta Beauty's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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The US Retail Saturation Index

All 104 major US chains ranked 0-100 on how close each is to its geographic store ceiling, computed from routed drive-time catchments.

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Wawa vs QuikTrip: trade area overlap

Wawa and QuikTrip trade areas routed on the road network. 6.66% of Wawa's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Wendy's vs McDonald's: trade area overlap

Wendy's and McDonald's trade areas routed on the road network. 99.87% of Wendy's's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Wingstop vs Whataburger: trade area overlap

Wingstop and Whataburger trade areas routed on the road network. 28.01% of Wingstop's reach is shared at a 30-minute drive.

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Chain directory

A live footprint reference page for each chain the platform covers: U.S. store count, drive-time population reach, trade-area demographics, and retail real-estate context. 66 chains published.

Dollar General20,425 · 88.9%Starbucks16,975 · 90.4%McDonald's13,558 · 95.6%CVS10,337 · 89.1%Dollar Tree8,977 · 93.3%Taco Bell7,858 · 91.2%Family Dollar Stores7,060 · 81.4%Burger King Us6,635 · 92.0%AutoZone6,488 · 92.3%Domino's Pizza5,983 · 85.7%Wendys5,854 · 90.4%Walmart4,610 · 92.0%Advance Auto Parts4,029 · 70.4%Chipotle Mexican Grill3,929 · 80.5%T.J. Maxx3,698 · 84.9%Papa Johns2,957 · 81.2%Planet Fitness2,740 · 85.4%Caseys General Stores2,680 · 17.4%Tractor Supply Co2,304 · 71.4%Wingstop2,240 · 74.4%Gap2,050 · 78.0%Home Depot2,013 · 81.5%Target1,978 · 79.6%Five Below1,911 · 78.5%Ross Stores1,844 · 71.0%Bath & Body Works1,779 · 81.8%Lowe's1,751 · 83.4%Ulta Beauty1,525 · 81.1%Foot Locker1,391 · 68.7%The White Barn Candle Co1,300 · 76.5%Kroger1,250 · 18.8%Burlington Stores1,211 · 73.8%Carters1,211 · 71.0%Dutch Bros Coffee1,188 · 37.6%Kohl's1,175 · 78.6%Best Buy1,032 · 76.5%American Eagle Outfitters996 · 72.8%Dick's Sporting Goods774 · 72.5%Victoria's Secret744 · 70.7%Abercrombie & Fitch718 · 61.0%Ollies Bargain Outlet676 · 45.9%Texas Roadhouse668 · 64.6%Cracker Barrel656 · 51.3%Costco620 · 64.0%Urban Outfitters601 · 51.4%Mister Car Wash558 · 24.0%Grocery Outlet504 · 21.8%Williamssonoma487 · 50.0%Coach482 · 50.9%Lululemon Athletica476 · 59.9%Cava472 · 45.1%Boot Barn449 · 51.1%Sprouts Farmers Market443 · 35.4%Shake Shack417 · 49.4%Crocs370 · 36.7%Lithia Auto Stores333 · 31.2%Academy Sports + Outdoors298 · 23.1%BJ's Wholesale Club283 · 30.6%Floor Decor276 · 54.4%Dillards272 · 30.1%Tesla Motors223 · 45.1%The Cheesecake Factory214 · 48.7%Michael Kors209 · 40.8%Kate Spade164 · 35.5%Ugg74 · 18.7%Aritzia71 · 28.8%

See the full chain directory →

Guides & comparisons
Narrative Geo · Research

The US Retail Saturation Index — 104 chains ranked

Narrative Geo · Research

Coffee Map Of America vs : trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Buxton alternatives in 2026: what changed and where to go

Narrative Geo · Research

Placer.ai alternatives for trade area analysis

Narrative Geo · Research

SiteZeus alternatives for franchise site selection

Narrative Geo · Research

Franchise territory mapping software, compared

Narrative Geo · Research

Drive-time vs radius: why rings are wrong

Narrative Geo · Research

Retail cannibalization analysis: how to measure it

Narrative Geo · Research

How many locations can a market actually support?

Narrative Geo · Research

Site selection data: sources, costs and coverage

Narrative Geo · Research

Foot traffic panels vs routed trade areas

Narrative Geo · Research

Retail whitespace analysis: a practical guide

Narrative Geo · Research

Trade area analysis software: a 2026 guide

Narrative Geo · Research

How to define a franchise territory that holds up

Chain vs chain — 50 matchups
Narrative Geo · Research

AutoZone vs Advance Auto Parts: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Autozone vs Oreilly Auto Parts: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Baskin-Robbins vs Dairy Queen: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Best Buy vs GameStop: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Boot Barn vs Tractor Supply Co: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Casey's vs QuikTrip: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Chick-fil-A vs Popeyes: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Chipotle Mexican Grill vs Taco Bell: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Costco Wholesale Corp vs Bj S Wholesale Club: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

CVS vs Good Neighbor Pharmacy: trade area overlap

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Dick's Sporting Goods vs Academy Sports + Outdoors: trade area overlap

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Dollar General vs Dollar Tree: trade area overlap

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Dollar Tree vs Family Dollar Stores: trade area overlap

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Domino's vs Papa John's: trade area overlap

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Domino's vs Pizza Hut: trade area overlap

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Dutch Bros Coffee vs Starbucks: trade area overlap

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Five Below vs Dollar Tree: trade area overlap

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Foot Locker vs Dick's Sporting Goods: trade area overlap

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Gap vs American Eagle Outfitters: trade area overlap

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Great Clips vs Supercuts: trade area overlap

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Hardee's vs Burger King: trade area overlap

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Jiffy Lube vs Mister Car Wash: trade area overlap

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Kroger vs ALDI: trade area overlap

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Little Caesars vs Pizza Hut: trade area overlap

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Lululemon Athletica vs Alo Yoga: trade area overlap

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Lululemon Athletica vs Vuori: trade area overlap

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Marco's Pizza vs Domino's: trade area overlap

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Mattress Firm vs Floor & Decor: trade area overlap

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McDonald's vs Burger King: trade area overlap

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Ollie S Bargain Outlet vs Burlington Stores: trade area overlap

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Panera Bread vs CAVA: trade area overlap

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Petco vs Tractor Supply Co: trade area overlap

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Planet Fitness vs Anytime Fitness: trade area overlap

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Popeyes vs KFC: trade area overlap

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Shake Shack vs Chipotle Mexican Grill: trade area overlap

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Sonic Drive-In vs Dairy Queen: trade area overlap

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Sprouts Farmers Market vs Trader Joe's: trade area overlap

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Starbucks vs Dunkin': trade area overlap

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Subway vs Jersey Mike's: trade area overlap

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Subway vs Jimmy John's: trade area overlap

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Target vs Walmart: trade area overlap

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Texas Roadhouse vs Cracker Barrel: trade area overlap

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The Home Depot vs Lowe's: trade area overlap

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Tj Maxx vs Burlington Stores: trade area overlap

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Tj Maxx vs Ross Stores: trade area overlap

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Tractor Supply Co vs Ace Hardware: trade area overlap

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Ulta Beauty vs Sephora: trade area overlap

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Wawa vs QuikTrip: trade area overlap

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Wendy's vs McDonald's: trade area overlap

Narrative Geo · Research

Wingstop vs Whataburger: trade area overlap