How this is computed
Every store of every chain is routed on the US road network at a 30-minute drive time. The realistic ceiling is the number of non-redundant catchments the country supports for that chain. The index scores each chain 0–100 on how close its current estate is to that ceiling.
This is geography, not demand. A chain at 100 is not failing; it has run out of places to put a store that does not overlap one it already operates.
The index — all 104 chains
| # | Chain | US stores | Modelled ceiling | Index | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Starbucks | 16,975 | 17,208 | 100.0 | OVER-STORED |
| 2 | Dollar Tree | 8,977 | 9,039 | 99.0 | OVER-STORED |
| 3 | Sherwin Williams | 4,593 | 4,635 | 98.1 | OVER-STORED |
| 4 | Burger King | 6,635 | 6,688 | 97.1 | OVER-STORED |
| 5 | Wendy's | 5,854 | 5,919 | 96.1 | OVER-STORED |
| 6 | CVS | 10,337 | 10,459 | 95.1 | OVER-STORED |
| 7 | Walmart | 4,610 | 4,651 | 94.2 | OVER-STORED |
| 8 | Pizza Hut | 9,521 | 9,646 | 93.2 | OVER-STORED |
| 9 | T.J. Maxx | 3,698 | 3,745 | 92.2 | OVER-STORED |
| 10 | Planet Fitness | 2,740 | 2,764 | 91.3 | OVER-STORED |
| 11 | Taco Bell | 7,858 | 7,932 | 90.3 | OVER-STORED |
| 12 | Dollar General | 20,425 | 20,722 | 89.3 | OVER-STORED |
| 13 | GameStop | 4,360 | 4,426 | 88.3 | OVER-STORED |
| 14 | KFC | 4,287 | 4,351 | 87.4 | OVER-STORED |
| 15 | Domino's | 5,983 | 6,092 | 86.4 | OVER-STORED |
| 16 | Dairy Queen | 6,561 | 6,730 | 85.4 | OVER-STORED |
| 17 | Little Caesars | 4,753 | 4,867 | 84.5 | OVER-STORED |
| 18 | Dunkin' | 11,026 | 11,324 | 83.5 | OVER-STORED |
| 19 | O'Reilly Auto Parts | 6,228 | 6,334 | 82.5 | OVER-STORED |
| 20 | Bath Body Works | 1,779 | 1,814 | 81.6 | OVER-STORED |
| 21 | Family Dollar Stores 2025 | 7,592 | 7,872 | 80.6 | OVER-STORED |
| 22 | Jersey Mike's | 3,116 | 3,182 | 79.6 | OVER-STORED |
| 23 | Target | 1,978 | 2,023 | 78.6 | OVER-STORED |
| 24 | Popeyes | 3,948 | 4,070 | 77.7 | OVER-STORED |
| 25 | Family Dollar | 7,060 | 7,346 | 76.7 | OVER-STORED |
| 26 | Chipotle | 3,929 | 4,029 | 75.7 | OVER-STORED |
| 27 | Goodwill | 3,946 | 4,068 | 74.8 | ELEVATED |
| 28 | Great Clips | 4,626 | 4,771 | 73.8 | ELEVATED |
| 29 | Ulta Beauty | 1,525 | 1,558 | 72.8 | ELEVATED |
| 30 | The Home Depot | 2,013 | 2,055 | 71.8 | ELEVATED |
| 31 | Sephora | 1,714 | 1,761 | 70.9 | ELEVATED |
| 32 | Chick-fil-A | 3,346 | 3,467 | 69.9 | ELEVATED |
| 33 | Papa John's | 2,957 | 3,080 | 68.9 | ELEVATED |
| 34 | Lowe's | 1,751 | 1,804 | 68.0 | ELEVATED |
| 35 | Mattress Firm | 2,778 | 2,867 | 67.0 | ELEVATED |
| 36 | Gap | 2,050 | 2,129 | 66.0 | ELEVATED |
| 37 | Ace Hardware | 3,243 | 3,423 | 65.0 | ELEVATED |
| 38 | Kohls | 1,175 | 1,217 | 64.1 | ELEVATED |
| 39 | Baskin-Robbins | 3,537 | 3,725 | 63.1 | ELEVATED |
| 40 | Panera Bread | 2,267 | 2,366 | 62.1 | ELEVATED |
| 41 | Advance Auto Parts | 4,029 | 4,173 | 61.2 | ELEVATED |
| 42 | Five Below | 1,911 | 2,005 | 60.2 | ELEVATED |
| 43 | Best Buy | 1,032 | 1,078 | 59.2 | ELEVATED |
| 44 | Jiffy Lube | 2,593 | 2,761 | 58.3 | ELEVATED |
| 45 | Tractor Supply | 2,304 | 2,501 | 57.3 | ELEVATED |
| 46 | Anytime Fitness | 2,538 | 2,700 | 56.3 | ELEVATED |
| 47 | Supercuts | 2,550 | 2,701 | 55.3 | ELEVATED |
| 48 | Sonic Drive-In | 3,791 | 4,061 | 54.4 | ELEVATED |
| 49 | Petco | 1,623 | 1,711 | 53.4 | ELEVATED |
| 50 | Ross Dress for Less | 1,844 | 1,942 | 52.4 | ELEVATED |
| 51 | Jimmy John's | 2,718 | 2,910 | 51.5 | ELEVATED |
| 52 | Wingstop | 2,240 | 2,393 | 50.5 | ELEVATED |
| 53 | ALDI | 2,822 | 2,998 | 49.5 | BALANCED |
| 54 | The White Barn Candle Co | 1,300 | 1,386 | 48.5 | BALANCED |
| 55 | Good Neighbor Pharmacy | 2,588 | 2,898 | 47.6 | BALANCED |
| 56 | Burlington | 1,211 | 1,318 | 46.6 | BALANCED |
| 57 | True Value | 2,514 | 2,866 | 45.6 | BALANCED |
| 58 | American Eagle | 996 | 1,110 | 44.7 | BALANCED |
| 59 | Carters | 1,211 | 1,368 | 43.7 | BALANCED |
| 60 | Foot Locker | 1,391 | 1,583 | 42.7 | BALANCED |
| 61 | Dick's Sporting Goods | 774 | 882 | 41.7 | BALANCED |
| 62 | Texas Roadhouse | 668 | 774 | 40.8 | BALANCED |
| 63 | Victorias Secret | 744 | 860 | 39.8 | BALANCED |
| 64 | Hardee's | 1,894 | 2,273 | 38.8 | BALANCED |
| 65 | Marco's Pizza | 1,257 | 1,556 | 37.9 | BALANCED |
| 66 | Casey's | 2,680 | 3,292 | 36.9 | BALANCED |
| 67 | Wawa | 1,979 | 2,536 | 35.9 | BALANCED |
| 68 | Whataburger | 1,772 | 2,272 | 35.0 | BALANCED |
| 69 | Costco | 620 | 798 | 34.0 | BALANCED |
| 70 | Cracker Barrel | 656 | 864 | 33.0 | BALANCED |
| 71 | Dutch Bros | 1,188 | 1,591 | 32.0 | BALANCED |
| 72 | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | 676 | 892 | 31.1 | BALANCED |
| 73 | QuikTrip | 1,674 | 2,225 | 30.1 | BALANCED |
| 74 | Abercrombie Fitch | 718 | 958 | 29.1 | BALANCED |
| 75 | Skechers | 607 | 816 | 28.2 | BALANCED |
| 76 | Trader Joe's | 643 | 907 | 27.2 | BALANCED |
| 77 | Kroger | 1,250 | 1,739 | 26.2 | BALANCED |
| 78 | Boot Barn | 449 | 660 | 25.2 | BALANCED |
| 79 | Lululemon | 476 | 689 | 24.3 | RUNWAY |
| 80 | Buckle | 440 | 646 | 23.3 | RUNWAY |
| 81 | Urban Outfitters | 601 | 936 | 22.3 | RUNWAY |
| 82 | Coach | 482 | 797 | 21.4 | RUNWAY |
| 83 | CAVA | 472 | 774 | 20.4 | RUNWAY |
| 84 | Floor & Decor | 276 | 452 | 19.4 | RUNWAY |
| 85 | Williamssonoma | 487 | 816 | 18.4 | RUNWAY |
| 86 | Shake Shack | 417 | 714 | 17.5 | RUNWAY |
| 87 | Mister Car Wash | 558 | 981 | 16.5 | RUNWAY |
| 88 | Sprouts Farmers Market | 443 | 781 | 15.5 | RUNWAY |
| 89 | Nordstrom | 362 | 636 | 14.6 | RUNWAY |
| 90 | Grocery Outlet | 504 | 887 | 13.6 | RUNWAY |
| 91 | Crocs | 370 | 736 | 12.6 | RUNWAY |
| 92 | The Cheesecake Factory | 214 | 405 | 11.7 | RUNWAY |
| 93 | Lithia Auto Stores | 333 | 666 | 10.7 | RUNWAY |
| 94 | Tesla Motors | 223 | 444 | 9.7 | RUNWAY |
| 95 | Dillards | 272 | 544 | 8.7 | RUNWAY |
| 96 | Academy Sports + Outdoors | 298 | 596 | 7.8 | RUNWAY |
| 97 | BJ's Wholesale Club | 283 | 566 | 6.8 | RUNWAY |
| 98 | Michael Kors | 209 | 418 | 5.8 | RUNWAY |
| 99 | Kate Spade | 164 | 328 | 4.9 | RUNWAY |
| 100 | Vuori | 111 | 222 | 3.9 | RUNWAY |
| 101 | Alo Yoga | 91 | 182 | 2.9 | RUNWAY |
| 102 | Aritzia | 71 | 142 | 1.9 | RUNWAY |
| 103 | Ugg | 74 | 148 | 1.0 | RUNWAY |
| 104 | Bucees | 55 | 110 | 0.0 | RUNWAY |
Reading it
- Near 100: additional units necessarily overlap the existing estate. Growth has to come from format, daypart or price, not geography.
- Mid-range: genuine runway remains, concentrated in specific markets.
- Low: the footprint is far from the geographic limit.
Published monthly. Narrative Geo does not sample. Every trade area is routed on the actual road network with OSRM, against full Census/ACS population and a maintained POI set. The drive-time matrix is precomputed at 1.08 billion rows, so a national query across a 20,000-store chain returns in seconds rather than being metered per location.