Sprouts vs. Trader Joe's: 50.6% trade-area overlap, real numbers

Sprouts Farmers Market operates 443 U.S. stores reaching 119M Americans (35.4%) at a 30-min drive. Trade-area overlap with Trader Joe's (643 stores): 50.6%. All numbers below pulled from the live platform API at 2026-05-14 17:06:00 UTC.

Narrative Geo platform view
Narrative Geo platform view (illustrative). All numbers in this post sourced from the platform's live API at 2026-05-14 17:06:00 UTC.

Sprouts Farmers Market operates 443 U.S. stores. At a 30-minute drive radius the network reaches 119M Americans — 35.4% of the U.S. population. Average household income of the reached population: $102,879. Median age: 37.6. Working-age population reached: 73.9M (62.2% of total reach).

443
U.S. Stores
119M
Pop. Reached, 30-min
35.4%
National Coverage
$102.9K
Avg HH Income Reached

Demographic mix of reached population

Age cohort breakdown of the 119M-person trade area at 30-min drive. Numbers are absolute population counts from /api/trade-area.

Trade-area overlap with Trader Joe's

Sprouts Farmers Market: 443 U.S. stores reaching 119M Americans. Trader Joe's: 643 U.S. stores reaching 194M. Pairwise overlap computed at 30-min drive isochrone, H3 resolution 7.

50.6%
Overlap (Union %)
105M
Both Chains Reach
13.9M
Sprouts Farmers Market-only
88.7M
Trader Joe's-only

Union of reachable population: 207M (61.9% of U.S.).
Both-chains reach: 105M — 50.6% of union.
Sprouts Farmers Market-only reach: 13.9M — population within 30 min of Sprouts Farmers Market but NOT Trader Joe's.
Trader Joe's-only reach: 88.7M — population within 30 min of Trader Joe's but NOT Sprouts Farmers Market.

Quick read

Higher overlap percentage = the two networks compete more directly for the same trade-area population. 50.6% overlap means roughly 50.6% of the jointly-reachable U.S. population can shop either chain within 30 min, which sets the upper bound on customer-share competition between the two.

Methodology

Drive-time matrix. 1.083B routed pairs (origin H3 cell × destination H3 cell × 5/10/15/30/60-min drive). Built on OpenStreetMap U.S. extract via OSRM contraction-hierarchy.

Demographics. U.S. Census ACS 2023 5-year, block-group level, projected onto 12.86M H3 res-8 cells via overlap-weighted area apportionment.

Overlap. overlap_pct = both_pop / union_pop. Computed cell-by-cell with set operations; no smoothing.

What this post does NOT include. Named-MSA whitespace candidates (the platform's whitespace endpoint returns H3 cells with lat/lng, not MSA names). Store-to-store cannibalization inside a single chain (the platform only computes overlap between two distinct chains, not between sibling stores of one brand). Forward-looking unit-growth projections (these come from management guidance, not the platform).

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